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After two years of genetic modeling and simulation, I believe I’ve finally arrived at just about the best model I can make


This model predicts the variation in shared DNA between relatives and ancestors. I don’t foresee making very big changes to this model in the future–perhaps some minor tweaks to the input number of recombinations for mothers and fathers as more accurate statistics become available from large datasets will be the only future changes.

I’ve already posted a comparison of this model to two previous, simpler models; but I want to provide an area where people can see the results of the most accurate model all in one place. I hope that this can assist people who are trying to identify how closely they might be related to a DNA match or figure out how usual or unusual their percentage of shared DNA is with a known relative.

Below is a table that contains results of all of the simulation trials I’ve run for this particular model:

Cover photo by Robin Kumar. Feel free to ask me about modeling & simulation, genetic genealogy, or genealogical research. To see my articles on Medium, click here. And check out my nifty calculator that’s based on the first of my three genetic models. It lets you find the amount of an ancestor’s DNA you have when combined with various relatives.